Prediction 1
A recession is looking likely in the early 2020s, maybe as early as late 2020. Fed bailouts, bank systems being down, a lack of liquidity and a downturn in global manufacturing are all indicators that the global economy is in trouble. Interest rates are low and there isn’t much room for quantitative easing. The global economy may collapse under the weight of its own debt burden. If this happens, a loss of trust in the banking system and monetary policy could create an opening for the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
The Internet of Value is still in its infancy currently. However, by 2025 there are likely to be a couple of crypto projects showing high utility and pulling ahead of the rest. We are already seeing some more forward-thinking politicians designing policies around crypto. Bitcoin will get kicked off the top spot by market cap (sorry maxis), due to a lack of utility as it loses its first mover advantage.
Prediction 2
The structure of the internet and who polices it is going to come under intense scrutiny. We’ve seen fake news, privacy concerns, the spread of extremist content and the impact of these on foreign policy/elections. With such severe consequences, it is inevitable that some people think it is time for change. Even the creator of the web thinks it is broken and has started the Contract For The Web initiative. Whether this will bring about the desired changes is debatable. Whatever happens, hopefully the web doesn’t get hit by misguided, draconian regulations.
Prediction 3
It’s no secret that we’re becoming a more privacy-oriented society. Simultaneously, the dream of personalised medical care is coming closer to being a reality. However, we need data to do this. Lots of data. There have already been some major medical data controversies. At some point, decisions are going to be made about whether the benefits of such data processing outweigh any privacy concerns.
Prediction 4
IoT. That’s an annoying buzzword that has circulated in recent years. IoT devices have only seen limited use and have often had major flaws such as security issues. I’m not talking about the Voice Controller type devices offered by the likes of Google and Amazon but more specific systems. We could see more useful IoT devices finally enter markets. This would have major workflow and automation benefits in many business and personal situations. We could see the first few smart cities appear in several countries including the UK, though widespread adoption will likely take decades.
Prediction 5
5G (and no, it probably won’t kill us all). The rollout of 5G has already started in some areas. This will be a precursor to smart cities and thin client technology that moves more processing back onto servers. Phone and PC power may stagnate. Instead, most processing may be performed on powerful cloud servers using fast networks. This may see the rise of a subscription model for personal computation. It could also be a privacy/security scandal waiting to happen.
Prediction 6
You get an electric car, you get an electric car, you get an electric car! We might start taking environmental issues seriously. Car manufacturers are already picking up on a change in attitudes towards cars. As progressive politicians push to reach emissions targets, and we head towards gas cars becoming outlawed, the adoption of electric cars will only accelerate. Tesla is currently leading the charge, eclipsing all other manufacturers. Rumours of an upcoming battery breakthrough and FSD could push Tesla even further ahead. $TSLA shorts will continue to lose money (and it will continue to be funny).
Prediction 7
Here’s my moonshot prediction. Before 2030, we will see the first prototype of an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It won’t quite meet the requirements of being human-level to fully qualify as an AGI. However, it will be beyond anything currently possible and able to learn in unknown situations.